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Matt Kenseth + Jimmie Johnson + Kyle Busch = 90%. Everybody else = 10%
For the second week in a row, Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch finished 1-2.For the second week in a row, Jimmie Johnson got a top 5.These are the only drivers to start this year's Chase with two straight...
View ArticleHow did my Dover Picks do?
Reviewing my Dover picks, as featured in the latest BSports video:Dover FavoritesJimmie Johnson (WON the race and led 243 laps)Jeff Gordon (finished 4th and led 3 laps)Kyle Busch (finished 5th and led...
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Kenseth + Johnson + Busch = 96%. Everybody else 4%
For the third consecutive week, the three best drivers in the Chase dominated. Jimmie Johnson had a convincing win at Dover, while Matt Kenseth (7th) and Kyle Busch (5th) both led many laps and...
View ArticleVideo of Kansas Preview + Reviewing Picks
In last week's latest BSports Video, I discussed the most recent championship forecast probabilities, and previewed the race at Kansas.How did my picks do?Kansas FavoritesJimmie Johnson (led 6 laps and...
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And then there were two: 85% Chance of Johnson or Kenseth Winning the Title
The race at Kansas finally provided an opening for the rest of the Chase field to catch up to our top 3 drivers: Jimmie Johnson (6th), Matt Kenseth (11th), and Kyle Busch (34th) all finished outside...
View ArticleReviewing my Charlotte Picks
In last week's BSports Video, I gave my picks for yesterday's race at Charlotte. Here's how those picks did:Charlotte FavoritesKasey Kahne (led 138 laps and finished second - got passed for the lead...
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Chase Midpoint: 89% Chance of Johnson or Kenseth Winning Title
Another Chase race – another pair of top-5 finishes for Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth. By consistently finishing up front, our two leaders continue to squeeze out every other driver from any chance...
View ArticleHow Did My Talladega Picks Do?
Let's review how my picks from last week's Talladega preview video turned out:Talladega Favorites1) Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (led 38 laps and finished second)2) Jeff Gordon (led 3 laps and finished 14th)3)...
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After Talladega, Jimmie Johnson Takes a 52% - 32% Lead Over Matt Kenseth
The big story from Talladega this past Sunday was that none of our Chase contenders crashed out – instead, they took 12 of the top 20 spots. Unfortunately for now-former points leader Matt Kenseth, he...
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It’s Not Really a Tie: Jimmie Johnson Still Has the Edge over Matt Kenseth
Matt Kenseth had a career day this past Sunday at Martinsville, leading the most laps and finishing second to Jeff Gordon. Somebody who did not have a career day was Jimmie Johnson, whose fifth-place...
View ArticleHow Did My Texas Picks Do?
Let's review how my Texas picks turned out today:Texas FavoritesMatt Kenseth (led three laps and finished 4th including an early pit-road penalty)Greg Biffle (led one lap and finished 12th)Kyle Busch...
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With Win at Texas, Jimmie Johnson Takes a 68-31% Lead Over Matt Kenseth For...
By winning and leading the most laps at Texas, Jimmie Johnson’s dominating performance gave him a 7-point lead over Matt Kenseth in the standings, breaking their tie from last week. While 7 points may...
View ArticleHow Did My Phoenix Picks Do?
Let's see how Phoenix picks fared today.FavoritesJimmie Johnson (won the pole, led 1 lap, and finished third)Kurt Busch (finished fifth)Kyle Busch (finished seventh)Threats for First Phoenix WinJuan...
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Kenseth’s Implosion Gives Johnson a 91% Chance of Winning the Title
With only one race left to go, Jimmie Johnson should have an easy time coming home with the championship. Johnson’s third place finish at Phoenix, compared to Matt Kenseth’s poor 23rd place showing,...
View ArticleHow Did My Homestead Picks Do?
Let's review how my Homestead picks fared from the latest BSports video:Homestead FavoritesMatt Kenseth (won the pole, led 144 laps, and finished second)Carl Edwards (finished 12th)Greg Biffle...
View ArticleRecapping the Final Race at Homestead
As we discussed last week, Matt Kenseth was predicted to be a huge favorite to win Homestead. He came as close as possible – winning the pole, leading the most laps, and finished second.We also...
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Forecasting Austin Dillon’s Rookie Season
With the new season fast approaching, one of the major story lines will be the return of the famed #3 car. Rookie Austin Dillon will have a giant spotlight on him all year: in addition to driving the...
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Chase Volatility: Who Gets In and Who Gets Left Behind
As NASCAR continues to tweak its Chase format, expanding from 10 drivers to 12 to 13 -- to possibly 16 now -- we should all remember they are never going to be able to get what they want: a perfect...
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All of a Sudden, Everything Got a Lot Less Predictable
NASCAR announced last week that the championship would be determined almost entirely on race wins, rather than on accumulated points. With that giant change from the sports past, it will be much more...
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Who’s Making the Chase This Year?
As we saw last week, the new Chase format is practically win-and-you’re-in: drivers with a win in the first 26 races will have a spot in the 16-driver Chase field. So who’s making the Chase? We can...
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Race Car Drivers are Made, not Born
Malcom Gladwell, in his 2008 book Outliers, tried to explain why most elite hockey players in Canada were born in the first half of the year. While growing up through the levels of youth hockey, the...
View ArticleHow Did My Daytona 500 Picks Do?
It's time to review how my Daytona 500 picks fared in yesterday's race: Daytona 500 FavoritesDale Earnhardt, Jr. (WON the race and led 54 laps)Kyle Busch (led 19 laps and finished 19th)Tony Stewart...
View ArticleNew Chase Rules Creating a Spiral of Aggression
Two races down, and two drivers are already in the Chase. Only 24 more chances to get in. The most important lesson to take away from Phoenix is that teams will do whatever they can to win. Gambling on...
View ArticleAn Interview with Lesa France Kennedy
This week, BusinessWeek.com published my interview with NASCAR vice-chair Lesa France Kennedy. Here is the complete article.Here is our weekly BSports video: Moving on to this week’s picks:Bristol...
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The Chances of Seeing 16 Unique Winners Reach the Chase
With Joey Logano's win at Texas, we now have 7 unique winners through 7 races. This matters a lot in 2014, because the eligibility for the 16 Chase spots is primarily based on wins, and secondarily on...
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